Prices for some famous high-performing watch models like the Patek Philippe Nautilus, Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, and Rolex Daytona are going down. What’s behind the current market situation? Chrono24 has analyzed the data from hundreds of thousands of listings on the platform. Let’s start with some questions and observations:
First: Prices for certain high-performing models are starting to come back down to earth. Which watches are taking a hit, and how widespread is the impact?
Next: While the steel sports watch market continues to garner headlines, high-end dress watches are quietly picking up steam. Who are the star players here, and what could be causing the uptick in these upper-echelon timepieces?
Finally: Omega is gaining market share in the mid-priced segment.
Watch Market: High Performing Watches Begin to Soften
After years of runaway growth, highly sought-after models like the Rolex Daytona, Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, and Patek Philippe Nautilus are seeing their resale values diminish for the first time. National media outlets outside the watch world are taking notice, and watch investors are wondering what this means for the market as a whole.
Based on the data we’re seeing at Chrono24 across roughly 500,000 listings, the winners and losers vary by brand and model. The Rolex Daytona ref. 116500LN is down approximately 15% from its peak in April. The AP Royal Oak ref. 15202ST is down approximately 22% from its March high. And the Nautilus 5711 – the Genta-designed super-performer – reached a peak market price of $222k in February and is now down approximately 23% to roughly $170k on the secondary market.
Many point to global economic developments as contributing factors here, including rising inflation, the conflict in Ukraine, and the steep erosion of cryptocurrency values.
However, looking at year-on-year data, the secondary watch market as a whole continues to move upwards. When comparing the number of sales on Chrono24 to those from 2021, we see year-on-year increases of 19.7% for April, 24.2% for May, and 26.5% for June.
So, while some headlines might indicate a wildfire on the loose, the data shows a much more controlled burn.
High-End Dress Watches Gain Higher Market Values
Let’s now turn to the dress watch segment of the market, where watches that are typically simpler, smaller, and more precious are seeing some fairly atypical growth in pricing. Below are a few key examples.
The Vacheron Constantin Fiftysix has doubled in price since mid-2019, going from $8.5k to its current spot at $17.5k – and rising. The 4600E in steel with a blue dial has seen the most growth, but you’ll find a similar trajectory for the rose gold version as well.
The A. Lange & Söhne 1815 (ref. 206.021) is a 36-mm, yellow gold, time-only watch. Pre-owned examples sold for an average of $9.1k in July 2019 and are now selling for an average of $15.5k two years later.
And while Patek Philippe’s Nautilus 5711 is down from its peak, the humble Patek Philippe Calatrava continues to appreciate. The classic 5196R, for example, averaged a pre-owned price of $14.2k in July 2019, and today sits at $22.8k and climbing.
While it’s tough to say exactly what’s causing this pricing shift among high-end dress watches, there are a few factors that could help explain how we got here.
Although the world at large is still dealing with Coronavirus, many cities are seeing a return to dressing up and going out. Offices are filling back up, and restaurants have been full for quite some time now.
Some say dress watches have been too good of a deal for too long. So the price developments we’re currently seeing may be the result of an overdue increase in attention.
Others theorize that collectors who started as fans of steel sports watches are branching out to other categories and diversifying their collections.
Omega Gains Market Share in the Middle of the Market
Just like the Greek alphabet, we’re ending with Omega. For a closer look at what’s going on with one of the most famous watches of all time, read what Chrono24 author Donato Andrioli wrote about the Omega Speedmaster and why it retains its value so well. While prices for the Speedmaster continue to grow, the Omega Seamaster series is not being seriously affected by the current market developments.
There you have it, a snapshot of the secondary watch market for July 2022. Stay tuned for future episodes of Time Is Money here on our Chrono24 YouTube channel. Because although time only moves in one direction, the market does not. We’ll see you next month, and as always, enjoy your watches!
